Opportunity Cost and Fantasy Baseball

A couple weeks ago I traded for CarGO in my h2h league. Part of the package was taking on Martin Prado who is batting an amazing 31-5-22-1-.242 so far this season. Despite the Yuniskey Betancourt like stat line his batted ball rates and Pitch F/X numbers make me think he's just getting unlucky. Plus he plays four different positions so I've kept him around on my team. 

Today Prado is the last man on my bench and I don't know how much longer to keep him until the liabilities outweigh the assets which brings me to Opportunity Cost. 

Because Prado is on my team I am missing out on the opportunity to pick up any hot free agents. Jose Iglesias is hitting .419 with 12 runs scored over the past 23 games and I missed out because Prado is my backup infielder. Coby Rasmus has found his power stroke and I'm missing out because Prado is my backup infielder. Rajai Davis and Jayson Werth are sitting on my waiver wire and I can't take a flier on either because I need a backup infielder more than I need another outfielder. Holding onto Prado is costing me an opportunity to have any of the other guys I want on my team.

Let's talk numbers if Rajai Davis steals 35 bases ROS Prado's Opportunity Cost is those 35 stolen bases (minus Prado's steals). Rasmus hits 30 more home runs his Opportunity Cost is those homers (minus Prado's homers). If Werth scores 60 times his Opportunity Cost was those runs (minus Prado's runs). And if I drop Prado and he's picked up which I think he will be the Opportunity Cost will be whatever Prado does minus what I replaced him with. 

If I was certain Prado would be left on the wire I wouldn't have to worry about the Opportunity Cost of dropping him because when he got hot I could pick him up thereby replacing him with himself - having my cake and eating it too.

Opportunity Cost isn't just Martin Prado it's all of Fantasy Baseball. Have a borderline start with one of your pitchers? The Opportunity Cost is to not start him. You'll get 0's for the day but maybe you'll avoid getting your ratios bombed. Got a superstar in a slump? Opportunity Cost is to bench him until he turns it around. If he keeps slumping your replacement player will provide more value than the superstar would have. Maximize your roster turnover to maximize your Opportunity Costs drop the players who won't be picked up by other teams and go after the players riding hot streaks. When the hot streaks peter out drop those players too. 

Keep in mind what you lose by keeping a player and compare it to what that player offers you. Consider if other teams in the league would pick up a guy you're thinking about dropping. Numbers are numbers it doesn't matter if you quilt them together from the waiver wire as long as you win.