Opportunity Cost and Fantasy Baseball

A couple weeks ago I traded for CarGO in my h2h league. Part of the package was taking on Martin Prado who is batting an amazing 31-5-22-1-.242 so far this season. Despite the Yuniskey Betancourt like stat line his batted ball rates and Pitch F/X numbers make me think he's just getting unlucky. Plus he plays four different positions so I've kept him around on my team. 

Today Prado is the last man on my bench and I don't know how much longer to keep him until the liabilities outweigh the assets which brings me to Opportunity Cost. 

Because Prado is on my team I am missing out on the opportunity to pick up any hot free agents. Jose Iglesias is hitting .419 with 12 runs scored over the past 23 games and I missed out because Prado is my backup infielder. Coby Rasmus has found his power stroke and I'm missing out because Prado is my backup infielder. Rajai Davis and Jayson Werth are sitting on my waiver wire and I can't take a flier on either because I need a backup infielder more than I need another outfielder. Holding onto Prado is costing me an opportunity to have any of the other guys I want on my team.

Let's talk numbers if Rajai Davis steals 35 bases ROS Prado's Opportunity Cost is those 35 stolen bases (minus Prado's steals). Rasmus hits 30 more home runs his Opportunity Cost is those homers (minus Prado's homers). If Werth scores 60 times his Opportunity Cost was those runs (minus Prado's runs). And if I drop Prado and he's picked up which I think he will be the Opportunity Cost will be whatever Prado does minus what I replaced him with. 

If I was certain Prado would be left on the wire I wouldn't have to worry about the Opportunity Cost of dropping him because when he got hot I could pick him up thereby replacing him with himself - having my cake and eating it too.

Opportunity Cost isn't just Martin Prado it's all of Fantasy Baseball. Have a borderline start with one of your pitchers? The Opportunity Cost is to not start him. You'll get 0's for the day but maybe you'll avoid getting your ratios bombed. Got a superstar in a slump? Opportunity Cost is to bench him until he turns it around. If he keeps slumping your replacement player will provide more value than the superstar would have. Maximize your roster turnover to maximize your Opportunity Costs drop the players who won't be picked up by other teams and go after the players riding hot streaks. When the hot streaks peter out drop those players too. 

Keep in mind what you lose by keeping a player and compare it to what that player offers you. Consider if other teams in the league would pick up a guy you're thinking about dropping. Numbers are numbers it doesn't matter if you quilt them together from the waiver wire as long as you win.

The Temptation of Gregor Blanco

Gregor Blanco is hitting 5-1-7-2-.414 (12/29) over his last 7 games. This is nothing more than a player riding a hot streak but it is still very interesting to the savvy fantasy owner. Gregor knows the trend is his friend and if Blanco is actually seeing the ball well he'll probably have a couple 1-3 games before he totally cools off. Maybe he's the perfect guy to fill in for the ailing Justin Upton whose return I believe is just around the corner.

The Blanco Watch will serve as a benchmark for benchwarmers who go on streaks. Maybe we can get some data on this persistent fantasy question. When is the right time to add/drop streaky players?

Day 1: 1-4 1 Single, 1 Caught Stealing
Day 2: 3-5 (4-9) 3 Singles, 1 Stolen Base, 1 Run Scored
Day 3: 3-5 (7-14) 2 Singles, 1 Double, 1 Run Scored
Day 3 Note: Blanco has gotten hotter since we started the Blanco Watch.

The Week Ahead: 2-start pitchers probably on your Waiver Wire

So, it's Monday and that means lineup turnover. An opportunity for savvy owners to exploit matchups, is Phil Hughes pitching on the road against the Mets and Giants? START HIM. Got a flyball pitcher starting a game in the GAB? SIT.

For H-2-H leagues Monday is a great opportunity to grab a couple 2-start starters off the wire and plug them in hopefully you get some wins and strikeouts without blowing up your ratios.

Here we go:

Alfredo Figaro @HOU vATL - Figures to rack up the K's against HOU and ATL. Can't promise ATL won't knock him around so moderate risk with this one.
Carlos Quintana @HOU @KC - Faces Houston and KC. Pitching on the road against the Royals shouldn't hurt your ratios too much.
Jason Vargas vSEA vPIT - My favorite 2-start guy this week. If you have to pick up only 1 make it Vargas.
Jorge De La Rosa @TOR @WAS- Probably will have 2 solid starts.
Joe Blanton vSEA vPIT- Has good win potential against the Mariners and Pirates. Had his best start of the season 2 weeks ago vs. HOU. Scraping the bottom of the barrel with Blanton.
Jeff Francis @TOR @WAS- Pitching better then his ERA. Gets to face the anemic WAS offense.

Locks of the week:
Jason Vargas
Jorge De La Rosa

How To Have Fun When Your Team Sucks

Well it's June and my team is in dead last so I know it's going to be a long ROS. How can I save the season and have some fun? Experiment with different strategies. My latest bright idea is to trade all of my pitching for hitting and then pick up 2-start starters every week.

A little background. I'm in a standard h2h league on Yahoo, 10 teams, 3 bench slots, 2 dl slots, very shallow league that I didn't prepare for well enough. Serpentine draft. EW. Once you go auction you don't go back.

Keep checking back for updates on how my strategy is going or maybe I'll get bored of it and try something else, that's most likely what will happen.

Slow Your Roll, Jack!

January 20th 2009,
So you watched some of the inauguration, then decided you would rather be looking up something far more important to you...

Google Search: Fantasy Baseball

What did you find? Expert Mock Drafts? Rankings? Tiers? Keepers and Sleepers? Who not to draft?

Its January 20th, take a breath: SLOW DOWN!

Most of your fantasy baseball drafts- at least the leagues worth being in- won't take place until a few weeks into Spring Training. In the next two months, the value of nearly every player will rise or fall: some will change drastically, while others will see only small spikes in worth. The cause of these changes will be varied:

• Injuries
• Position Battles
• The guy who proclaims that this is the season he wants to steal 40 bases
• The pitcher who learns a pitch that revolutionizes his game
• The fallen prospect, who hits .350 in spring training and finally shows the power people always knew he had
  
• And of course theres always some relatively unknown pitcher who dazzles us in spring training and seems to be the next big thing

As a results of all the value changing factors, doing a mock draft tomorrow is rendered useless. Time spent looking at rankings based on projected statistics that are bound to change would be better used sleeping.

The best thing to do is simple: learn about the players. In order to best prepare you need to familiarize yourself with each players skills, past performances, and their stories. Succeeding at fantasy baseball really depends having a passion for the sport itself. All this may seem like a lot of work, and it is, thats where RotoAcademy comes in.

Here at RotoAcademy, we will do our best to provide you with Fantasy Baseball insight that will lead you winning the cash, and most importantly, bragging rights of your league. Because just like real Baseball, this is a labor of love. As you accumulate more knowledge about baseball, you will see increased success in fantasy baseball, and you will fall deeper in love with the sport that is affectionately called: America's Favorite Pastime.